Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.927801 1.084782 1.260009 1.470096 1.715176 1.992110 2.328919
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.690204 0.902116 1.165855 1.518238 1.977007 2.554538 3.337813
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.549352 0.777437 1.084203 1.527011 2.150444 2.998073 4.240610
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.450609 0.680178 1.008983 1.514319 2.272412 3.369489 5.082371
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.380534 0.607308 0.950232 1.506604 2.388287 3.734822 5.954863
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.331850 0.556626 0.913411 1.520968 2.532055 4.152269 6.956662
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.280209 0.491838 0.842942 1.467818 2.555215 4.375824 7.670093
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.264621 0.484382 0.864185 1.568298 2.845201 5.071481 9.268467
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.228924 0.435832 0.807362 1.522972 2.871835 5.314452 10.099565
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.198080 0.391342 0.751105 1.469479 2.873766 5.509250 10.862556
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.173043 0.354103 0.702874 1.423517 2.881741 5.712761 11.664176
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.159660 0.337839 0.692415 1.449306 3.032091 6.205679 13.099104
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.154751 0.338713 0.717033 1.551619 3.355832 7.093189 15.483929
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.144821 0.327654 0.715956 1.600624 3.576362 7.801702 17.600120
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.132619 0.309764 0.697817 1.609762 3.711173 8.345291 19.431545
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.120190 0.289464 0.671474 1.596377 3.792723 8.781088 21.077338
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.109611 0.271916 0.648882 1.588244 3.884712 9.251142 22.867464
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.101714 0.259661 0.636860 1.603386 4.033687 9.871579 25.104759
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.090442 0.237408 0.597999 1.547358 4.000658 10.053739 26.284083
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.089263 0.240721 0.622198 1.653278 4.389278 11.317274 30.389820
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.080220 0.222113 0.588757 1.605498 4.374148 11.564655 31.876182
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.071769 0.203888 0.553900 1.549109 4.328353 11.726837 33.157254
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.064581 0.188130 0.523502 1.500658 4.297503 11.924436 34.564697